Next James Bond actor? — Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated September 2, 2026
As of September 2, 2026, the prediction market implies a 23% chance of Jack Lowden on Polymarket, with $559K in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Jack Lowden — market favorite
Polymarket · $559K reported volume
23%
Implied
Venue listing
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This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
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Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 2, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Jack Lowden | Polymarket | 23% | $94.9K |
No Bond chosen | Polymarket | 21% | $271.9K |
Jack Barton | Polymarket | 19% | $15.9K |
Callum Turner | Polymarket | 18% | $50.8K |
Jacob Elordi | Polymarket | 6% | $8.5K |
Harris Dickinson | Polymarket | 4% | $8.7K |
Theo James | Polymarket | 3% | $21.4K |
Jack O'Connell | Polymarket | 3% | $13.2K |
Paul Mescal | Polymarket | 2% | $5K |
Aaron Taylor-Johnson | Polymarket | 1% | $13.8K |
James Norton | Polymarket | 1% | $8.5K |
Pierce Brosnan | Polymarket | 1% | $5.9K |
Tom Hardy | Polymarket | 1% | $5.7K |
Josh O'Connor | Polymarket | 1% | $5.3K |
Henry Cavill | Polymarket | 1% | $4.7K |
Tom Holland | Polymarket | 1% | $4.1K |
Robert James-Collier | Polymarket | 1% | $3.6K |
Timothee Chalamet | Polymarket | 1% | $3.3K |
Michael B Jordan | Polymarket | 1% | $2.8K |
Tom Francis | Polymarket | 1% | $2.7K |
Jonathan Bailey | Polymarket | 1% | $2.3K |
Nicholas Galitzine | Polymarket | 1% | $2.2K |
Tom Blyth | Polymarket | 1% | $2.2K |
Richard Madden | Polymarket | 1% | $1.8K |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 2, 2026 snapshot · 52/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 27/30 | $559K in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 24 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Jack Lowden at 23% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $559K in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Wednesday, September 2 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices Next James Bond actor? at 23% implied probability on Polymarket as of Wednesday, September 2. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 24 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $559K in venue-native event volume. Jack Lowden leads at 23%, a longshot, ahead of No Bond chosen at 21%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How entertainment markets like this resolve
Entertainment markets resolve on a public result — an awards outcome, a box-office figure, a release. The price is what traders pay for each result before it’s known.
What could move it
Nominations, review embargoes and early tracking, release schedules, and audience buzz drive the moves. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 23% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 23¢ implies a 23% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, September 2; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
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Frequently asked questions
Next James Bond actor?
As of Wednesday, September 2, Polymarket price Jack Lowden at 23% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Jack Lowden?
The prediction market implies a 23% chance of Jack Lowden on Polymarket as of Wednesday, September 2 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/next-james-bond-actor-odds-2026-12-31?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=next-james-bond-actor-odds-2026-12-31">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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