The market is currently pricing a 14% probability of this outcome. Cross-platform analysis shows a 3-point divergence between Kalshi (15%) and Polymarket (12%), suggesting potential arbitrage or differing trader sentiment. Key catalysts ahead could shift these odds significantly.
Evidence suggests conditions are aligning for a positive resolution.
Significant headwinds remain that could prevent the specified outcome.
Divergence opportunity: Buy YES on Polymarket at 12¢, sell on Kalshi at 15¢